What finally settled this for me was thinking about returns differently than skimmers. Returns usually don’t crack because of water in the pool, they crack when a little bit of water gets trapped behind the plug and has nowhere to go when it freezes. So the real variable isn’t the water level, it’s how confident you are that the line is actually empty.
I leave my water level fairly high now, but I’m picky about how I blow the returns out. I wait until it’s not just air but that dry sputtering mist, then plug while the blower is still pushing. I also angle the eyeballs down slightly before closing so gravity works in my favor. That’s been enough through several winters with no issues.
If you’re unsure about your blower strength, plugs, or how well your lines drain, lowering below the returns gives you a safety net. But if you know the lines are dry and sealed, the water level itself isn’t really doing the protecting. It’s more about removing trapped pockets than exposing the fitting.